Alboran Energy Strategy Consutlatns

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  • Energy Musings, September 1, 2023

    Energy Musings contains articles and analyses dealing with important issues and developments within the energy industry, including historical perspective, with potentially significant implications for executives planning their companies’ future.

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    September 1, 2023

    NJ Calls It “Choice” But It Is Really About “Free Money”

    The Governor of New Jersey is telling his residents that the legislation to ban the sale of internal combustion vehicles by 2035 is all about improving their choices in buying cars. Buy used or go next door are the answers for those who do not want an EV or hybrid. His climate director gave away the game: there is so much free money residents would be short-changing themselves if they didn’t grab some of it. Washington’s money printing press drives government policies. READ MORE

    Last Tuesday’s Duds For Offshore Wind

    BOEM’s Gulf of Mexico offshore wind lease sale received only two bids for the single Louisiana lease offered, while the two leases off Texas received no bids. The offshore wind movement took a hit. There are numerous reasons why developers were reluctant to bid. The same day, leading offshore wind developer Ørsted announced a $2.3 billion impairment of its U.S. offshore wind portfolio, the second impairment in 12 months. Inflation, capital costs, and reduced subsidies are the reason. The company is having similar problems with its North Sea projects. Ørsted’s stock fell by 25% as investors question if the bad news is over. READ MORE

    August Market Doldrums Are Over And Energy Did Well

    Energy was the best-performing sector for August, giving the sector a second consecutive month in the top spot. Fundamentals for the sector continue to improve, which enabled oil prices to rise over August. It appears global oil demand is growing, and supply is restrained supporting higher oil prices and energy company earnings, which drive stock prices. The balance of 2023 may see these trends continue. Enjoy the ride. READ MORE

    NJ Calls It “Choice” But It Is Really About “Free Money”

    New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy is a big green energy promoter. As the Wall Street Journal pointed out in an editorial, he wants to force residents to buy electric vehicles (EV) to save the planet. He has pushed the state to adopt California’s ban on the sale of new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2035, barely over a decade from now. Murphy has not only championed EVs, but he also led the charge to give the state’s share of federal tax revenues from offshore wind destined for residents’ pocketbooks back to Ørsted, the Danish developer of the Ocean Wind project which has become a lightning rod of political outrage.

    By wanting to burnish his green credentials, Murphy pushed to have New Jersey, one of the 17 states that routinely follow California’s auto standards, join the dozen states that have also signed onto the ban on ICE vehicle sales. Murphy is selling his proposal as expanding the vehicle choice options for residents while disguising the reality that their ability to purchase a new ICE vehicle is going to be restricted as the state heads toward the 2035 ban.

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  • Energy Musings, August 2, 2023

    Energy Musings contains articles and analyses dealing with important issues and developments within the energy industry, including historical perspective, with potentially significant implications for executives planning their companies’ future.

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    August 2, 2023

    Climate Uncertainty And Risks Viewed By Judith Curry

    Curry’s book is a tough read because it forces you to consider how much is unknown and uncertain about climate change science. A controversial climate scientist who was harassed and pressured to resign her tenured professorship and position as chair of the engineering school at Georgia Tech, Curry began to investigate why questioning the science was so unsettling. According to Curry, there are better ways to seek climate change solutions than our current fortress mentality approach. Read the book to understand this critical policy debate that is changing our economy and lives. READ MORE

    Higher Oil Prices Drive Energy Stock Recovery

    The S&P 500 Index sector report for July showed Energy was the top performer. After six months of poor performance in 2023, the rise in oil prices and improving economic outlooks boosting demand helped performance. Crude oil prices reached the highest level since April ($80 per barrel) and the monthly increase matched that of January 2022. Headwinds have become tailwinds and investors may be forced to reconsider their aversion to owning Energy stocks. READ MORE

    Climate Uncertainty And Risks Viewed By Judith Curry

    We just finished reading Judith Curry’s book, Climate Uncertainty And Risks: Rethinking Our Response, which provides a wonderful but challenging journey through the political minefield of climate change science and its policy prescriptions. For those of us who have been researching and writing about climate change – the science, data, and policy recommendations – we noted that the book’s title is suddenly out of date. U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres has just upped the climate rhetoric. The greenhouse effect of the 1980s was overtaken by global warming, which often was described as global heating. Then terminology shifts came quicker going from climate change to the climate crisis, the climate emergency, and now global boiling. What’s next – global vaporization?

    Exhibit 1. Discovering What We Know And Do Not Know

    Source: eBay

    Curry’s new book was published in June. In January, Curry wrote on her blog about the book, its origin and objectives, the peer review process it was subjected to, and the book’s cost. The book was peer reviewed and issued by an academic publisher, Anthem, which wished to expand its ‘Environment and Sustainability Initiative’. Choosing this publisher made for a better volume in Curry’s view because of the peer review process, but it also created a cost problem for the book and its various formats. Imagine an author worried about how an expensive book might limit the reach and impact of her thinking!

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  • Energy Musings, July 5, 2023

    Energy Musings contains articles and analyses dealing with important issues and developments within the energy industry, including historical perspective, with potentially significant implications for executives planning their companies’ future.

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    July 5, 2023

    China Demographic Data Will Impact Our Future World

    The latest Chinese population data shows that the aging exhibited in its old data has gotten worse. Moreover, the Shanghai Academy of Sciences says the country overcounted the 45 and younger population by 100 million making the aging worse and contributing to a rapidly shrinking labor force. As a result, China’s labor costs are rising rapidly erasing its global competitive advantage that forces us to reassess our outlook for the country. READ MORE

    Energy Stocks Struggle: Will The Struggle Continue?

    June marked the best month for Energy stocks this year. Still, Energy was the second worst-performing sector for the second quarter and the first half of 2023. Many investment strategists believe Energy will continue to underperform. But there are possible green shoots in the stock market. Additionally, crude oil price action suggests we could easily experience a sharp move upward. READ MORE

    China Demographic Data Will Impact Our Future World

    The latest demographic data from China suggests we need to revise our thinking about the world’s trajectory. That means thinking differently about China’s role in the geopolitical sphere, which may explain why it has become more aggressive in courting some and threatening other countries. The population data has implications for future world inflation rates, as well as energy demand and carbon emissions predictions. It does not mean all future global scenarios are wrong. More likely, we need to consider others – ones not now considered mainstream.

    Peter Zeihan, a geopolitical strategist, and author of The End of The World Is Just The Beginning, obtained the population data China recently sent to the United Nations Population Division. In a recent presentation, he showed the following three charts. The first was China’s old population pyramid data that displays the number of people in 5-year increments reflecting the youngest birth year. The pyramid showed how China’s population age groupings peaked in 1990 and have consistently been smaller with each five-year increment. The 2025 data shows the smallest

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  • Energy Musings, May 4, 2023

    Energy Musings contains articles and analyses dealing with important issues and developments within the energy industry, including historical perspective, with potentially significant implications for executives planning their companies’ future.

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    May 3, 2023

    Like UConn’s WBB, Our Luck Ran Out

    For years, our reporting on our drive from Houston to our summer home in Rhode Island has been of keen interest to readers of Energy Musings because it provides a critical glimpse into current economic conditions. Turmoil is the best description of what we experienced on the drive. READ MORE

    A Good April For Energy Quickly Reversed In May

    Higher oil prices in April drove the Energy sector in the S&P 500 Index to a strong performance. The sector finished third, the first time this year it has been at the top of the sector rankings. May has started with falling oil prices and the Energy sector has followed the commodity lower. READ MORE

    ‘The Unpopular Truth’ Tells The Truth About Clean Energy

    This is a review of a sobering book looking at the limitations of the energy transition and the misunderstandings of policymakers that produce bad rules and mandates. We recommend the book by an experienced energy economist and commodity trader for his insights. The review was previously published on MasterResource.org. READ MORE

    Like UConn’s WBB, Our Luck Ran Out

    Geno Auriemma, the University of Connecticut women’s basketball coach, described the 2022-23 season that ended with the team losing in the Sweet Sixteen, short of its goal of reaching the Final Four for the 15th time, as challenging. He lauded the successes the team achieved given the rash of injuries sustained. He noted that during the prior decade, UConn never experienced so many injuries. The team played shorthanded all season, having lost its star player and top freshman before the season began. Injuries forced constant line-up changes and even a postponement since there were not seven healthy players. Auriemma said their luck had run out.

    As UConn alumni and avid WBB supporters, my wife and I felt like Auriemma during our annual drive from Houston to Rhode Island. It was the worst trip we have experienced in years. We spent hours sitting in traffic, dealt with downpours and slowing speeds, had unusual food experiences, were challenged to find our hotel, and even had to sit in the car until the rain let up when we arrived in Rhode Island.

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  • Energy Musings, November 29, 2022

    Energy Musings contains articles and analyses dealing with important issues and developments within the energy industry, including historical perspective, with potentially significant implications for executives planning their companies’ future. While published every two weeks, events and travel may alter that schedule. I welcome your comments and observations. Allen Brooks

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    November 29, 2022

    Energy Market Outlook Seen By Investors And Analysts

    Observations from RBC energy investor survey and Fed Bank energy conference provide a set of unconventional views of energy markets and their future along with how energy stocks may trade. READ MORE

    Inflation And Interest Rates Continue To Roil Energy Markets

    Investors think inflation has peaked but the real world seems to just begin seeing its impact and higher interest rates are proving a problem. Gavekal Research shows a different perspective. READ MORE

    New England’s Winter May Not Be Fun As It Will Be Costly

    Heating oil and electricity prices have soared with supply shortage fears, so weather will determine how costly winter is. Forecasts suggest a normal winter with periods of severe cold. READ MORE

    Europe’s Energy Wildcards Less Effective Than Anticipated

    Russia oil ban and Europe oil and gas price caps may be less effective than originally thought. Politics have created regulations that hold potential for market chaos and underground options. READ MORE

    Random Energy Topics And Our Thoughts

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  • Musings From The Oil Patch, August 27, 2019

    Energy Market Woes May Require Investment Thesis Rethink
    Does The U.S. Have An Oil Demand Problem?
    EV Sales Up; Will Battery Capacity Match Growth Plans?
    Pictures Reflecting The Reality Of Our Green Energy World

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  • Musings From The Oil Patch, July 16, 2019

    Vehicles, Driving And The Future Of The Gasoline Market
    Ensco Rowan Name Change Marks New Offshore Drilling Era
    Climate Change Media Is Taken to Task For Lack Of Honesty
    Oil Prices On The March Despite Demand Challenges

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  • Musings From The Oil Patch, April 16, 2019

    Spring Has Sprung: What Does It Mean For Commodities?
    Pressure To Revamp Subsidies Questions EV Market Health
    Saudi Aramco And The Wild West, Emerald City and Oz
    It’s Hurricane Forecasting Season, But Should We Worry?

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  • Musings From The Oil Patch, January 22, 2019

    Energy: So Far So Good – Will It Be The Star Of 2019?
    Judging The Electric Vehicle Revolution’s Success
    Canada Energy Policy Swings And The Political Landscape

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  • Musings From The Oil Patch, May 1, 2018

    Shell’s Latest Scenario: Realistic, Pie-in-the-Sky or CYA?
    2018 Oil Market Challenge: Can It Be About Noble Goals?
    Wall Street’s Disaffection With Energy Needs A Revolution
    Promises Of Wind Energy May Not Be As Great As Thought
    A Name From Industry’s Past Surfaces In FBI Scandal
    Oil Industry Confronts Ghost Of Future Regulation (Nov. 9, 2010)

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  • Musings From The Oil Patch, April 3, 2018

    Uber Car Accident Shocks Hopes For New Era Auto Market
    Worst Stock Market Week Also Showed Oil’s Problem
    Boy, Was Punxsutawney Phil Right. Now What?
    Natural Gas Continues To Struggle – Some Are Writing It Off
    Canada’s Fractured Energy Politics May Reflect Cabin Fever
    Auto Executives Are In The Center Of A Storm

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