Alboran Energy Strategy Consutlatns

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  • Energy Musings, September 1, 2023

    Energy Musings contains articles and analyses dealing with important issues and developments within the energy industry, including historical perspective, with potentially significant implications for executives planning their companies’ future.

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    September 1, 2023

    NJ Calls It “Choice” But It Is Really About “Free Money”

    The Governor of New Jersey is telling his residents that the legislation to ban the sale of internal combustion vehicles by 2035 is all about improving their choices in buying cars. Buy used or go next door are the answers for those who do not want an EV or hybrid. His climate director gave away the game: there is so much free money residents would be short-changing themselves if they didn’t grab some of it. Washington’s money printing press drives government policies. READ MORE

    Last Tuesday’s Duds For Offshore Wind

    BOEM’s Gulf of Mexico offshore wind lease sale received only two bids for the single Louisiana lease offered, while the two leases off Texas received no bids. The offshore wind movement took a hit. There are numerous reasons why developers were reluctant to bid. The same day, leading offshore wind developer Ørsted announced a $2.3 billion impairment of its U.S. offshore wind portfolio, the second impairment in 12 months. Inflation, capital costs, and reduced subsidies are the reason. The company is having similar problems with its North Sea projects. Ørsted’s stock fell by 25% as investors question if the bad news is over. READ MORE

    August Market Doldrums Are Over And Energy Did Well

    Energy was the best-performing sector for August, giving the sector a second consecutive month in the top spot. Fundamentals for the sector continue to improve, which enabled oil prices to rise over August. It appears global oil demand is growing, and supply is restrained supporting higher oil prices and energy company earnings, which drive stock prices. The balance of 2023 may see these trends continue. Enjoy the ride. READ MORE

    NJ Calls It “Choice” But It Is Really About “Free Money”

    New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy is a big green energy promoter. As the Wall Street Journal pointed out in an editorial, he wants to force residents to buy electric vehicles (EV) to save the planet. He has pushed the state to adopt California’s ban on the sale of new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2035, barely over a decade from now. Murphy has not only championed EVs, but he also led the charge to give the state’s share of federal tax revenues from offshore wind destined for residents’ pocketbooks back to Ørsted, the Danish developer of the Ocean Wind project which has become a lightning rod of political outrage.

    By wanting to burnish his green credentials, Murphy pushed to have New Jersey, one of the 17 states that routinely follow California’s auto standards, join the dozen states that have also signed onto the ban on ICE vehicle sales. Murphy is selling his proposal as expanding the vehicle choice options for residents while disguising the reality that their ability to purchase a new ICE vehicle is going to be restricted as the state heads toward the 2035 ban.

    Read the full article on Energy-Musings.com »

  • Energy Musings, August 2, 2023

    Energy Musings contains articles and analyses dealing with important issues and developments within the energy industry, including historical perspective, with potentially significant implications for executives planning their companies’ future.

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    August 2, 2023

    Climate Uncertainty And Risks Viewed By Judith Curry

    Curry’s book is a tough read because it forces you to consider how much is unknown and uncertain about climate change science. A controversial climate scientist who was harassed and pressured to resign her tenured professorship and position as chair of the engineering school at Georgia Tech, Curry began to investigate why questioning the science was so unsettling. According to Curry, there are better ways to seek climate change solutions than our current fortress mentality approach. Read the book to understand this critical policy debate that is changing our economy and lives. READ MORE

    Higher Oil Prices Drive Energy Stock Recovery

    The S&P 500 Index sector report for July showed Energy was the top performer. After six months of poor performance in 2023, the rise in oil prices and improving economic outlooks boosting demand helped performance. Crude oil prices reached the highest level since April ($80 per barrel) and the monthly increase matched that of January 2022. Headwinds have become tailwinds and investors may be forced to reconsider their aversion to owning Energy stocks. READ MORE

    Climate Uncertainty And Risks Viewed By Judith Curry

    We just finished reading Judith Curry’s book, Climate Uncertainty And Risks: Rethinking Our Response, which provides a wonderful but challenging journey through the political minefield of climate change science and its policy prescriptions. For those of us who have been researching and writing about climate change – the science, data, and policy recommendations – we noted that the book’s title is suddenly out of date. U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres has just upped the climate rhetoric. The greenhouse effect of the 1980s was overtaken by global warming, which often was described as global heating. Then terminology shifts came quicker going from climate change to the climate crisis, the climate emergency, and now global boiling. What’s next – global vaporization?

    Exhibit 1. Discovering What We Know And Do Not Know

    Source: eBay

    Curry’s new book was published in June. In January, Curry wrote on her blog about the book, its origin and objectives, the peer review process it was subjected to, and the book’s cost. The book was peer reviewed and issued by an academic publisher, Anthem, which wished to expand its ‘Environment and Sustainability Initiative’. Choosing this publisher made for a better volume in Curry’s view because of the peer review process, but it also created a cost problem for the book and its various formats. Imagine an author worried about how an expensive book might limit the reach and impact of her thinking!

    Read the full article on Energy-Musings.com »

  • Energy Musings, June 2, 2023

    Energy Musings contains articles and analyses dealing with important issues and developments within the energy industry, including historical perspective, with potentially significant implications for executives planning their companies’ future.

    Download the PDF

    June 2, 2023

    Oil Prices Are Crashing As Headwinds Grow Stronger

    Rapidan’s Robert McNally laid out the thesis for higher oil prices once we get beyond the next 3-6 months of macro-economic headwinds. Russia is feared as a quota-buster, but it will become a non-factor as global oil demand rises. The biggest threat to the oil industry is higher taxes, not climate change. READ MORE

    Energy Suffers In May As Oil Prices Fall After Rally

    During May, WTI oil prices fell by 11% which contributed to the Energy sector being the worst performer in the month. It is also the worst performer for the first five months of 2023. What will it take for better performance? READ MORE

    Latest Developments In The U.S. Offshore Wind Market

    New offshore wind farms along the New England coast are starting construction. However, political, economic, and now a proposed environmental protection area for whales could disrupt the timing of projects. We are following the multitude of developments. READ MORE

    Oil Prices Are Crashing As Headwinds Grow Stronger

    When the oil market opened following the Memorial Day holiday, oil prices dropped by more than 4%. From around $73 a barrel, oil prices fell to the $69 level before falling again on Wednesday. There are numerous reasons for oil price weakness including disappointing economic data from China, continued strength in the U.S. dollar’s value, concerns over the U.S. debt ceiling saga, persistent inflation, and the risk of further central bank interest rate hikes, capped off by uncertainty about the upcoming OPEC+ meeting. The prospect of an in-person gathering of OPEC+ officials has some oil watchers speculating that this meeting could lead to a further cut in production quotas or another period of market-share battles between Russia and Saudi Arabia. The banning of several media outlets from covering the gathering has further added to the mystery of what may happen this weekend in Vienna.

    Given the uncertainty about these macro issues, the commodity futures market remains susceptible to increased volatile moves reflecting trader sentiment shifts. For the past several years – essentially since the start of the pandemic in 2020 – oil trading has experienced a shrinking market as traders have retreated from participation or have reduced the amount of their commitment. In fact, according to the commitment of traders’ data, the net bullish positions are the lowest they have been since 2011.

    Read the full article on Energy-Musings.com »

  • Energy Musings, December 13, 2022

    Energy Musings contains articles and analyses dealing with important issues and developments within the energy industry, including historical perspective, with potentially significant implications for executives planning their companies’ future. While published every two weeks, events and travel may alter that schedule. I welcome your comments and observations. Allen Brooks

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    December 13, 2022

    How Do We Know What Is Normal?

    Falling oil prices are upsetting the conventional energy sector narrative as commodity and equity traders wrestle with what is normal, especially as they move to protect their gains of this year. READ MORE

    Enough Fingers For Power Market Finger-Pointing Exercise?

    Inflation has become an issue for renewable providers, but so too has wind stillness, NOAA wind support vessel speed restrictions, ocean turbulence from wind farms, and mineral availability. READ MORE

    Random Energy Topics And Our Thoughts

    Despite Fear Mongering There Is Good News On Climate Change

    A Tough November For Energy Stocks But Good YTD Gains

    Another Step In The EV Revolution

    2022 Hurricane Season Was Not What Was Expected

    Read the full article on Energy-Musings.com »

  • Energy Musings, November 15, 2022

    Energy Musings contains articles and analyses dealing with important issues and developments within the energy industry, including historical perspective, with potentially significant implications for executives planning their companies’ future. While published every two weeks, events and travel may alter that schedule. I welcome your comments and observations. Allen Brooks

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    November 15, 2022

    Age Of Inflation: More Unseen Challenges For The New Normal

    Despite the CPI easing, we still see more inflation and interest rate problems ahead. READ MORE

    New York Times Climate Skeptic Has Change Of Heart

    He wonders if the pandemic’s arrival is more reflective of possible climate problems. READ MORE

    COP27 Struggles For Relevance In Energy-Challenged World

    In an energy crisis, security of supply is trumping political concern over climate change. READ MORE

    October’s Stock Market Harvest Was Very Good For Energy

    Energy has had an outstanding 2022 and October’s performance was a record. READ MORE

    Random Energy Topics And Our Thoughts

    Read the full article on Energy-Musings.com »

  • Energy Musings, May 17, 2022

    Energy Musings contains articles and analyses dealing with important issues and developments within the energy industry, including historical perspective, with potentially significant implications for executives planning their companies’ future. While published every two weeks, events and travel may alter that schedule. I welcome your comments and observations. Allen Brooks

    Download the PDF

    May 17, 2022

    “The Drive” Confirms Much About Energy And Inflation

    America is back! Read about our observations from “The Drive” and energy’s role. READ MORE

    Energy Continues To Confound Investor Expectations

    Energy is the only sector to increase its capitalization from January 1st Through May 10th. READ MORE

    Manhattan Contrarian’s View Of New York’s Net Zero Plan

    New York State’s net zero emissions plan is woefully lacking in details and cost estimates. READ MORE

    Wood Returns: Not Your Distant-Grandfather’s Log Cabin

    Wood has become the new clean building material and we will be seeing more log towers. READ MORE

    Decarbonizing Air Transportation Is Underway

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  • Musings From The Oil Patch, January 23, 2018

    Nobody Cares About Oil Anymore – But Is That Smart?
    Winter Weather Highlights Natural Gas Market Challenges
    Are Electric Vehicles Old News Now Or Merely Mainstream?
    Germany’s Renewable Energy Revolution Faces Challenges

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  • Musings from the Oil Patch – November 9, 2010

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    Source: Energy Musings

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