climate change

Energy Musings contains articles and analyses dealing with important issues and developments within the energy industry, including historical perspective, with potentially significant implications for executives planning their companies’ future.

Download the PDf

July 30, 2023

Climate To Be Stock Market Theme Of The Decade?

Stocks move up and down based on investor optimism or pessimism about the economy and the earnings power of companies. But investment performance may be impacted by other considerations reflected in decade-long investment themes. From the Go-Go era to gold to Japan, Inc. and the dot.com boom and bust, every decade has had a theme that drove the performance of select stocks or assets. The current decade’s theme may be climate but not climate change. Climate is a ‘big tent’ concept yielding numerous investment opportunities. The reason for the theme may surprise you. READ MORE

Climate To Be Stock Market Theme Of The Decade?

Legendary stock market investor, Warren Buffett believes in long-term investing. He has said, “If you aren’t willing to own a stock for ten years, don’t even think about owning it for ten minutes.” That certainly isn’t the mantra of day traders or momentum investors. It isn’t the investment style of most active portfolio managers. In Buffett’s case, he often owns a stock for decades, and in some cases even buys the entire company to add to his Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate.

If you focus on long-term investing, your portfolio will experience ups and downs as the stock market oscillates through periods of optimism and pessimism about the future of the world’s economy and its impact on company earnings. Stock prices reflect the mood of investors and the earnings power of companies. But other factors impact share prices such as investment themes that drive investors to favor certain types of companies at any point in time.

We recently listened to a professional wealth manager interview the founder and managing editor of an independent global macro research and trading advisory firm with a focus on major investment themes. During the podcast, he was asked about what investment theme investors should be focused on now. Before answering the question, the strategist reviewed the history of investment themes. His narration covered almost all our investment career. We found his history of decade investment themes insightful as it characterized what was popular at the time and made money for investors until the theme stopped working. Often, investors fail to realize a theme has ended and another has begun, which is what costs them money.

Exhibit 1. How Stocks, Bonds, And Inflation Performed By Decade

Source: wealthmeta.com

Let’s look at the investment themes the strategist identified. To make the review parallel our career, we will begin with the 1960s, a decade the strategist didn’t mention. To understand the theme of the 1960s, we must first understand the 1950s. That market was an extension of the post-World War II boom driven by rapid economic growth as the U.S. transitioned from a war footing to one capitalizing on the many inventions of the late 1930s and during the war, rapidly growing young populations, and rising incomes and improving lifestyles. The public’s inability to spend on goods, cars, appliances, and homes during the 1930s and 1940s led to a buildup of savings which fueled the 1950s economy. But investing during that decade was heavily influenced by the conservative approach of Americans who had lived through the Depression and WW II.